<aside> <img src="/icons/reorder_gray.svg" alt="/icons/reorder_gray.svg" width="40px" /> CPI Tape reading / Final Hour Macro / RTH Gap / Opening Range / Inter-market analysis.
</aside>
If price hits the first Buyside ahead of CPI. If that’s the case we want to see if drops into deeper Discounts. But this is a gamble. It is a one way sudden move and you are on the wrong side, you’ll get smoked.
✍ When we are bullish and we have Fair Value Gap like that, we don’t want to see price returning to the C.E. How far then? only to the 0.25 level.
NWOG and NDOGs are real fair value. Their are real points of interest for the market to want to gravitate back to. The market is designed and could do this because it allows the sentiment and interest on a large fund level for them to want to bring their orders into the marketplace which is really the primary driver for where the market drives against liquidity.
Normally CPI is just one sided quick move. Its unforgiving if you are on the wrong side. The speed that it comes with it, may not even trigger your orders. After CPI hits, we can look for run to inefficiencies.
On the DXY we hit Feb 9th Sell side low and we look for rejection.
If DXY starts to move higher from the rejection than this is suggesting that the BSL on ES was just a raid.
On a day like this you want to see the time between the release of 8 30 CPI number, all the way to the opening at 9 30 and see how they use that opening range when the opening bell rings at 9 30 New York.
Its still 50-50. So that’s a gamble. Lets look at EURUSD and GBPUSD and compare 15m lows.
GBP failed to make the LL so we have SMT Divergence between the 15m lows. We want to see confirmation on DXY for lower prices that will provide higher prices on other assets. That would give a way for the 4208.50 BSL on ES.