<aside> <img src="/icons/reorder_gray.svg" alt="/icons/reorder_gray.svg" width="40px" /> How to anticipate Swing Failures? How far can turtle soup extend? Smart Money POV.
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Last couple of weeks we were expecting the dollar to reach up into the Volume Imbalance and taking out the REH whilst doing that. Dollar going higher means Risk OFF, so all other assets should experience lower prices. Yesterday, we came down to the smaller VI, and then rocketed higher, into all 3 levels, the Rejection block, the C.E. and the REH. Ultimately we hit the Volume Imbalance. The fuel for that move was FED’s Powel speech.
There is a big delivery on the upside, even if we didn't have the pal. Testimony begins at 10 o'clock, on the heels of a large range stay, like that and delivering to a Target like the Volume Imbalance that we had. That right there cools the Jets for the week. Now everybody is wondering what’s next? We sit still, and that's how you hone patience and self-control. Also, Powel testimony at 10 o'clock can change all this. It could rock it up even further for DXY and send the in the indices and foreign currencies lower, even still today. Or we could have a retracement back down into the big range candle from yesterday. At this point, once we have a weekly objective reached, we STOP!
The strength is to know when the odds are not in your favor.
Incidentally, as a reminder, this week is non-farm payroll protocol. We don't trade that day. It's not a worthwhile venture to take on the risk that comes along with trading on the Thursday and the Friday of NFP. Why do we avoid Thursday and Friday of NFP week?
The probabilities for precision fall off precipitously on these 2 days. That’s why we as traders, try to do all of our business for the week before Wednesday 11am. Wednesday’s AM Session is the last time we trade during that week. Demo trade is okay, but don’t risk real funds. Because yes the markets will move and probably there will be setups. But looking back in history, ICT concepts the precision is off on those 2 days. As a rule-based trader/analyst, we must have rules or list of protocols and procedures to follow.
We have 1H SIBI and 15m Buyside Pool that is taken out. Now we drop down to the 5m.
When price went up at 9:30 into the 5m SIBI it took out BSL and that caught BO in long positions. Then it dropped down into Rejection block and probably scared them out of their positions. This morning we don’t have a clear indication of how to engage the markets. We just observe.
